David Davis’ speech in Teesport on 26th January 2018 was proof, if any were needed, that Brexit is simply not going to happen. The UK Government has decided not to extend the Treaties by appeal to paragraph 3 of Article 50 which states…
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
If the European Council agreed to extend the membership of the UK then, effectively nothing whatsoever would change and we would not have left the EU on 29th March 2019. Instead, the UK Government wants a transitional deal that allows the UK to…
- Stay in The Customs Union
- Stay in The Single Market (accept the four freedoms)
- Allows the UK Government to negotiate (and sign) it’s own trade deals.
The EU will probably allow the UK to negotiate its own trade deals, but, they will demand billions of pounds in return (probably about £10 billion a year). Already, there is talk of a three year transition period, so, I can foresee that over the coming years, the UK Government and the EU will work towards a position where they can present re-joining the EU as the best option for the UK.
Philip Hammond’s statement in Davos that Brexit would involve “very modest” changes to the status quo, shows exactly what the UK Government is working towards. The UK Government is simply protecting big business and is totally disregarding the majority of people in the UK who want to see the UK leave the EU.
The UK Government have agreed to every single demand that the EU has presented. They agreed to pay tens of billions in a “divorce” settlement when the country is bankrupt and cannot afford to pay more. They fudged the issue of the Irish Border, when the reality is that it is for the EU to provide a solution to it’s hard border. The UK Government meekly accepted the jurisdiction of the ECJ with regard to EU citizens remaining in the UK. The Prime Ministers speech in Florence showed precisely how weak the UK is. I’m sure The European Council can’t believe its luck.
So, the “implementation period” will see the UK no longer a member of the EU. The ECJ will be given jurisdiction in the UK, but, the question is, who will look after UK citizens rights in the EU? The ECJ only looks after the rights of MEMBER countries.
David Davis wants over 50 trade deals that the EU negotiated to apply to the UK in the “implementation period”, but those trade deals apply to MEMBER countries. The “third” countries who signed those deals will have no obligation to honour those deals when it comes to the UK (another “third” country).
David Davis states that the UK will be able to negotiate its own trade deals and sign them. He also states that they won’t be effective until the “implementation period” ceases. Are other countries going to negotiate with us while we’re shackled to the EU?
Free Movement of People will continue unabated during the “implementation period”, yet, according to Davis Davis, EU migrants will have to “register”. I can’t see the ECJ allowing their citizens to be discriminated against. Remember, part of the deal is for the UK to fully accept “the four freedoms”.
It may be said that the UK Government is acting cautiously. I say, the UK Government is simply setting this country up to fail and once we have failed, the next logical step would be to re-join the EU, introduce the Euro, and lose our rebate. Theresa May, what have you done.